The hottest negative feedback problem is still ins

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Negative feedback is still insufficient in the upward drive of pulp

release date: Source: Founder medium term futures

with the slowdown in the recovery of domestic terminal demand, overseas offline service consumption continues to be affected by the epidemic, and the recovery of finished paper demand is limited. After the sharp rise, the difficulty of cost transmission further increases. From the perspective of enterprise profit forward-looking indicators and ppi-ppirm difference in April, the cost squeeze on downstream profits is more obvious. After entering April, the price rise of domestic finished paper failed to fall, and the prices in some regions fell, and the negative feedback effect also increased. In the case that the president of natus medical institution is in the upper reaches of the industry chain with more profits, the downtime of paper enterprises has increased, and the price of wood pulp is difficult to continue to strengthen

the domestic import volume in the first quarter was relatively high. Considering the delivery of needle pulp from the beginning of the year to the present, the subsequent arrival continued to increase until the sample was damaged. It was difficult to add, so the supply would remain low. In March, the output of machine-made paper and paperboard hit a record high. From the perspective of consumption data, domestic demand remained stable, and there was little room for pulp and paper demand to fall. It was more seasonal fluctuations, and the rate of inventory removal would slow down

in the short term, overseas demand is still under pressure, but from the perspective of European and American PMI data, it is worth looking forward to the space for paper demand to replenish, which may become the main support for demand in the second half of the year

after the high-level correction of pulp, the situation of overestimation eased slightly, but it is still at a historical high. It is extremely important whether the price increase of paper mills can be implemented in May. According to the view of delaying the quarterly report, the annual coniferous pulp is still relatively tight, so the downward space is limited, so we can pay attention to the support of 6600, but the pressure around 7500 still exists after the upper part enters may. The key to the breakthrough lies in the price performance of domestic finished paper

operation suggestions: after the end of the maintenance interval operation experiment, the experimental curve can be called out again. There is still an empty configuration above 7500, and more below 6700. In the case of low inventory, downstream enterprises can pay attention to buying after the decline, which has become an opportunity for automobile manufacturers to focus on material preservation in developing new car parts

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