The hottest needle coke increases by more than 400

Needle coke rose by more than 400% and lithium cathode materials may be raised

Abstract: at present, the mainstream cathode material enterprises ranking at the top have accounted for half of the country and enjoy more market pricing dominance; In the future, with the gradual release of new capacity, the overall price of cathode materials will show a downward trend

under the pressure of cost reduction in the power battery industry chain, the upstream lithium battery raw materials have started a "small revolution". Since the cobalt price soared in the first quarter of this year, needle coke, the raw material of lithium battery cathode, began to relay

recently, a number of negative electrode material enterprises disclosed to high-tech lithium batteries that due to the supply side reform of graphite electrode, its demand for electric arc furnace has increased significantly, which directly led to the tight supply of raw material needle coke and a sharp rise in price. As of July 11, its price rise has exceeded 400% compared with the beginning of the year, which has deeply affected the lithium battery cathode market

according to the investigation of the Institute of lithium battery research (GGII), the price rise of needle coke is rooted in the rectification of the extensive steel industry by the national supply side reform, and the sharp rise in the demand for graphite electrodes directly drives the needle coke market of upstream raw materials

according to insiders, the steel-making industry is currently in the transition period from crude steel to refined steel. The biggest impact of this change on the market is that the demand for graphite electrodes for refined steel exercise has increased significantly

"in the first half of the year, our graphite electrodes were basically in short supply." Dong minningqing, the leader of domestic graphite electrode Fangda carbon, once said that due to the market gap of about 100000 tons this year, this tension between supply and demand is expected to continue

it is precisely based on the sudden market import of graphite electrodes and the fact that some domestic joint venture manufacturers can reach the market increment. The upstream raw material needle coke has not responded in time, the market supply is limited, and the price has risen sharply, which makes many lithium battery cathode manufacturers headache. Although in the first half of this year, due to various market considerations, lithium battery negative electrode enterprises digested the upstream price rise, it did not rule out the possibility of transmission to downstream battery enterprises

the current supply situation of needle coke market and the future trend of lithium battery cathode market have become important issues that the lithium battery industry needs to pay attention to

behind the price rise of needle coke

GGII research found that the price of needle coke rose wildly in the first half of 2017, and the quotation rose from 4000/ton at the beginning of the year to 20000/ton at present, an increase of more than 400%. The main reasons are:

terminals need to rise rapidly in the construction process: on March 9, 2017, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission The Ministry of environmental protection and other 16 ministries and commissions jointly issued the guiding opinions on using comprehensive standards to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity in accordance with laws and regulations, pointing out that it is necessary to severely crack down on the illegal production and sale of "ground bar steel", and comprehensively dismantle the power frequency furnaces, medium frequency furnaces and other equipment that produce construction steel in accordance with the law

major steel-making enterprises have dismantled medium frequency furnaces and replaced them with electric arc furnaces, resulting in a sharp rise in the demand for graphite electrodes. The price rose from 18000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 65000 yuan/ton at the end of June. The market demand for graphite electrode is rising rapidly, resulting in the needle coke market in short supply

needle coke supply is tight and there is a gap: for reasons such as environmental protection rectification, the state ordered the closure of some low-end small needle coke production enterprises, which is relatively tight. For example, Shanxi Hongte, a domestic enterprise, has stopped production at present, and currently mainly sells inventory, with a stock of tons

from the perspective of supply pattern, the main supplier of needle coke of Japan's Nippon chemical and South Korea's POSCO is carbon, while the production capacity of Japan's Mitsubishi needle coke is relatively small, so the domestic supply is relatively tight. At present, the price of needle coke of Mitsubishi Chemical has risen to us dollars/ton

lithium battery negative electrode did not rise but fell

although the price of raw material needle coke rose four times in the first half of this year, the price of lithium battery negative electrode material was declining. GGII analysis believes that the main reasons are:

stabilize the market share: in the first half of 2016, although the price of raw materials rose, other enterprises did not raise their prices in order to stabilize the market share on the premise that domestic negative pole leading enterprises beiteri and Shanghai Shanshan did not increase their prices significantly

the demand for price reduction of battery enterprises is urgent: under the premise of the sharp increase of cost pressure of battery enterprises, the demand for price reduction of cathode material enterprises is put forward; At the same time, in the first half of the year, the prices of ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide rose sharply, and the negative electrode materials were in a passive position for a long time, so the battery enterprises had a poor ability to accept the price rise

mainstream enterprises needle coke enterprises sign long-term contracts, and raw materials are mainly consumed inventory: domestic mainstream enterprises will sign long-term purchase contracts with needle coke enterprises. Continuous experiments on a large number of experimental films can improve the effectiveness of operations. The contract period is from half a year to one year. Therefore, needle coke production enterprises of cathode materials in the first half of the year are mainly consumed inventory, The price rise of needle coke has a relatively small impact on the cost of cathode material manufacturers

predict the future price trend of lithium battery cathode

ggii analysis shows that at present, the mainstream cathode material enterprises ranking at the top have occupied half of the country and enjoy more market pricing dominance; In the future, with the gradual release of new capacity, the overall price of cathode materials will show a downward trend. However, GGII believes that due to the tight supply of needle coke and other major raw materials and the rapid climbing of scientific and technological innovation capacity, if negative electrode enterprises are difficult to digest this wave of price rise, it may be transmitted to downstream battery enterprises, so the market price of negative electrode materials will rise in stages in the second half of the year

the main reasons for the increase of lithium battery cathode price are:

the tight supply and demand pattern of needle coke will continue to be maintained, and the price will be at a high level: in the second half of the year, the demand for needle coke from graphite electrode will remain strong, and in the second half of the year, as the power battery market enters the peak season, the demand for needle coke from artificial graphite will also rise rapidly, the tight supply situation of needle coke will continue to be maintained, and the price still has room to rise

the inventory of the enterprise is gradually consumed, and the price rise touches the limit of the enterprise: in the second half of the year, the inventory of needle coke of the cathode material enterprise is gradually consumed, and the enterprise must purchase needle coke at a high price. At present, the purchasing price of needle coke in cathode material enterprises is yuan/ton, and it continues to rise in the second half of the year. The price rise of needle coke in the second half of the year is bound to reach the limit of the enterprise. Therefore, GGII believes that the price rise of cathode material will also become a probability event