Focus on investment opportunities in building insu

Polyurethane traditionally focuses on investment opportunities in the building insulation Market in the off-season

the price of polyurethane raw materials rose and fell in October, and the downstream operating rate was lower than that in previous years as a whole. The price of pure MDI was -8.7% year-on-year, that of polymerized MDI was -6.4%, that of TDI was -19.6% year-on-year, and that of adipic acid was -17.7% year-on-year. BDO and Po are in tight supply. Although the downstream demand is poor, the price is still +18.2% and +18.9% year-on-year. Supported by the price rise of Po, the price of polyether increased by 19.7% (hard foam polyether) and 13.6% (soft foam polyether) respectively. The operating rate of downstream industries is lower than that in previous years, the polyurethane rigid foam market is good, and the decline of polymerized MDI is low. The TPU downstream of pure MDI is about 60%, the slurry is about 60%, the sole stock solution is about 50%, and the spandex is about 80%. The market demand for soft bubbles is the highest. After the installation of the tensile testing machine, the initial accuracy correction is required. It is low, and TDI has the largest decline

the volume and price of traditional off-season products are expected to fall in November. November is the traditional off-season for polyurethane demand. After the sluggish traditional peak season this year and subject to the still tight capital chain, the downstream construction of polyurethane dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises has been at a low level, and the demand and inventory have been low. The demand of downstream enterprises rebounded in November and the possibility of replenishing inventory is low. Traders' inventories also remained low in the mood of buying up rather than buying down. It is expected that the volume and price of major products in the industry may continue to fall in November, but the price decline is likely to slow down under the stimulation of relevant policies of the state to support small and medium-sized enterprises

the traditional off-season focuses on structural investment opportunities. In November, the polyurethane industry 2 was firmly centered on the high-end fundamentals, which is not good. We suggest paying attention to the policy trend of polyurethane exterior wall insulation materials. We judge that in the current off-season of construction, the relevant national departments may solve the problem that energy conservation and class a flame retardance cannot be met at the same time. However, even if the relevant policies are introduced recently, the pull on the industry performance will not begin to appear initially until the first quarter of next year, and the impact during the year will be more reflected in the pull on the valuation

the gross profit margin and net profit of listed companies fell seriously in the third quarter. In the third quarter, the gross profit margin of the industry was -2.3% year-on-year and -5.6% month on month. Only the gross profit of Yantai Wanhua increased month on month, and the rest decreased. The net profit of a single quarter was +10% year-on-year and -12% month on month. Considering that the net profit of Yantai Wanhua accounted for more than 60%, excluding Yantai Wanhua, the net profit of the industry was -10% year-on-year and -56% month on month, reflecting that the failure to start the traditional peak season on schedule had a great impact on the industry's profits. The net cash flow from operating activities in a single quarter fell significantly month on month and year-on-year, respectively -72% and -94%

risk factors: macro economic rate ≥ 0.05%fs/s, the economy fluctuates sharply, and the downstream demand falls sharply

industry investment rating and investment strategy. The industry has entered the traditional off-season, and both volume and price have fallen within market expectations. We suggest paying attention to the valuation improvement brought by the polyurethane exterior wall insulation policy to relevant companies, and relatively optimistic about Jacques technology, Yantai Wanhua and hongbaoli with flame retardant concept

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