Comments on the output data of the industrial robot industry in September: the output of the industrial robot industry shows negative growth for the first time, and the industry will enter a benign development stage.
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the output of China's industrial robots is negative for the first time in a single month. In September, 2018, the output of industrial robots was 11448 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%. On the one hand, it was a high base in the same period last year: the output in September last year was 13085 units, the highest in history; On the other hand: the slowdown in capital expenditure caused by the decline in downstream customer demand since the second half of the year began to appear
the downstream demand of the industrial robot industry is still not optimistic in the short term. According to the data of China robotics Association, in 2017, the downstream of industrial robots: Electric Manufacturing of heat-resistant parts, insulating parts, wear-resistant parts, transmission parts, medical and electronic parts; The manufacturing of gear, fan blade, valve and other parts that can be used at higher temperatures accounts for 35.5% of the total, and the automobile manufacturing industry accounts for 30.5%, accounting for 66% of the total. They are the two main industries in the downstream demand of industrial robots. In June, the fixed asset investment in the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 1.7% year-on-year, and has continued to decline since June. The auto industry sold 2.394 million units in September, a year-on-year decline of 11.6%, which has been negative for three consecutive months. The short-term auto industry sales are not optimistic. Based on the pessimistic short-term sales forecast of the automotive industry, we believe that the capital expenditure of the automotive industry will be at a low point in the short term. In August, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry was 18.3%, 1.7pct higher than that in August; From the perspective of terminal demand, as of September, the domestic intelligent sales volume was 287million units, down 16.8% compared with the lead screw. It has been declining for several consecutive months since March 2017, and the intelligent sales volume is still in the decline channel. As the main driving force of 3C industry, the decline of smart sales is expected to drive the capital development support of relevant industrial chains to continue to decline
in the long run, China's market potential is still infinite, and domestic competitive enterprises are expected to emerge. In 2017, China's industrial robot industry witnessed explosive growth, but the sales volume of domestic robots accounted for 26.8%, down from 32.5% in 2016; From the perspective of multi joint robots, the proportion of domestic multi joint robots was 17.5%, down from 2016. The explosive growth of the industry has led to disorderly competition in the industry. The competitiveness of domestic robots has risen only slightly, and the share has fallen instead of rising. In the long run, the rise in labor costs and the decline in robot prices in China have helped the replacement of machines. The density of robots in China (68 units/10000 people) is lower than the world average, and the potential of China's robot market is still unlimited. The two-way positive feedback brought by the high cost performance of domestic robots, the strengthening of R & D by domestic enterprises to enhance product competitiveness, and the rapid localization of parts and components is expected to drive the domestic industrial robot industry to still develop at a high speed. We predict that the sales growth rate of China's industrial robot industry in 2018 will be 15%~20%, and the sales volume is expected to be about 160000 sets; It is expected to reach the sales volume of 200000 units by 2020. The sales volume of the industry has returned to rationality. In the future, the competitive enterprises with integrated industrial layout are expected to come out of the industry and lead the more benign development of the domestic industrial robot industry
investment suggestions: be cautious about the general automation industry in the short term, and the industry should invest in the core parts enterprises with localized and experimental machines equipped with automatic alarm and shutdown devices, the ontology enterprises with advantages in the upstream and downstream integrated layout, and the system integrators with advantages in the detection equipment of automobiles in specific sub industries
risk warning. The demand is declining, and the localization and replacement of parts and components are slow. Shanghai Securities Co., Ltd