Comments on the plastic warehouse receipt of the h

2022-08-04
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Comments on the plastic warehouse receipts of the Jinyin Island Stock Exchange on September 25

the warehouse receipts of the Jinyin Island stock exchange reported that today, polypropylene varieties rose slightly across the board, while linear varieties fell across the board. The settlement prices of pp0812 and ll0812 were 11453 and 12043 yuan/ton respectively, up and down -14 and -151 yuan/ton respectively compared with yesterday's settlement. A total of 2436 batches (12180 tons) were traded throughout the day, an increase of 179 batches compared with the previous trading day. The total order volume reached 3019 batches (15095 tons), an increase of 33 batches compared with the previous trading day

upstream dynamics:

nymex11 crude oil futures closed down US $0.88 at US $105.73 a barrel overnight. As of 16:00 on September 25, Beijing time, November crude oil futures rose US $0.47 to US $106.20. Ethylene monomer: 1050.0 yuan/ton level FOB Korea and 1050.0 yuan/ton level FOB Japan. Propylene monomer: FOB Korea reported 1151.0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, and FOB Japan reported 1149.0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan

polypropylene varieties:

the main force 0812 opened significantly lower in the morning at the lowest price of the day, 11350, with a shock recovery, and the intraday average price line was significantly supported; In the afternoon, it rose slightly to the top of yesterday's settlement for consolidation, focusing on maintaining stability, reaching 11488 and closing at 11480

news surface:

(1) external market: CFR Far East homopolymer PP fell by $50 (USD/ton), FOB Middle East homopolymer PP fell by $50 (USD/ton), FD northwest Europe homopolymer PP fell by € 30 (euro/ton), and Fas Houston homopolymer PP fell flat (USD/ton)

(2) domestic market: the quotation of PP market in Beijing was stable this morning. The pressure of local resources gradually shifted from petrochemical industry, including seats, handlebars, rims, baskets, brake wire covers and pedals, to the side of traders --- liuhesheng, President/Professor of Donghua University of technology, but the downstream demand was not very good. Merchants generally lack confidence in the market after the national day, and have an obvious mentality of short positions or low positions for the holiday. The local T30S quotation is 11800 yuan/ton, which is more difficult to deal with

(3) manufacturer's quotation/device dynamics: TIANLIAN PP continues to be listed, T30S is listed at 11600 yuan/ton, and PP device is planned to be shut down for overhaul for 20 days on the 28th. Maoming Petrochemical PP plant line 1 produces T30S, and line 2 system circulates. It is ready to start today. PP unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. switched to film material f280z on September 17, and the manufacturer plans to switch to wire drawing T30S on September 27

technical aspects (polypropylene and propylene link 2):

(1) price situation: the medium-sized trend of shock decline, and the short-term rebound falls back when it is blocked; After today's low opening, the matrix resin with weak anti adhesion to the grinding wheel obviously reduces the elasticity

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: take out bare foot male line. Both quantities increased significantly

(3) moving average (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the 5-day moving average rises close to the 10-day moving average, and the price is completely below the 5-day moving average; On the 60 minute line, the K line regained the support of 5 unit moving average, and there was no obvious signal of the recent three line stranding. Reference pressure 11705, 12000, support 11350, 11250

(4) index: adhesion below zero axis at MACD (26,12,9); KD (9,3,3) rose slowly from the oversold area without obvious signal

brief analysis and suggestions:

affected by the late diving of futures oil overnight, PP opened sharply lower today. Then, driven by the rebound of futures electronic disk, it rebounded in shock and leveled off at the end of the day. The spot market is still weak after a slight improvement yesterday. The key is that downstream demand has not yet recovered. PP future market direction is unclear, mainly on the sidelines. Close to the National Day holiday, pay attention to avoiding position risk

linear varieties:

the main force 0812 opened lower at 12100 in the morning and maintained a volatile trend throughout the day. From the morning to the day low of 11910, the afternoon high touched 12195, closing at 12050

news surface:

(1) external market: CFR Far East LLDPE (USD/ton) fell by $40, FD northwest Europe LLDPE (EUR/ton) fell by € 40, Fas Houston LLDPE (USD/ton) was flat, and FOB Middle East LLDPE (USD/ton) fell by $40

(2) domestic market: the quotation in Tianjin market fell back, and the merchants had little hope for the market after the festival. Before the festival, the low inventory shipping was the main business, and the 9020 Linyi picking up the goods was taxless at 11650 yuan/ton. The quotation around Yanshan continued to decline, and traders were not optimistic about the future market. PetroChina 7042 reported 12250 yuan/ton

(3) manufacturer quotation/device dynamics: PetroChina North China PE continued to be listed, the linear guide price was reduced by 100 to 12100 yuan/ton, the quotation in surrounding markets fell back and the transaction was flat, and 7042 yuan/ton was the mainstream quotation in North China. PetroChina Huadong linear continued to be listed, the market quotation fell slightly, and the overall transaction situation remained flat, with the local price of 7042 yuan/ton in Shanghai

technical aspect (line connected two)

(1) price trend: medium level trend of shock decline, short-term shock decline; Today, it continued to fall, mainly due to intraday shocks

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: collect the cross Yin star. Both quantities increased

(3) moving average system (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily average, the 5-day moving average continued to be close to the 10 day moving average, and closed back below the 5-day moving average. On the 60 minute line, there is no obvious signal for the recent three wire stranding. Reference pressure 12195, 12300, support 11910, 11700

(4) index: on the daily line, the lower part of the zero axis at MACD is bonded and leveled

brief analysis and suggestions:

after the decline, it has increased the difficulty in the design of the fixture, maintaining the shock trend within a day, and the short-term rebound is suppressed by the 5-day and 10-day average. The spot market remained in the doldrums. Before the holiday, petrochemicals still focused on digesting inventory. The market may fall in the aftermarket, but the bull psychology still has the potential support of the demand for agricultural film, so we should not be too bearish. (personal view, for reference only)

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